India’s November industrial output grew at its fastest pace in two years, which analysts say will strengthen the case for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to tighten monetary stance to temper inflationary expectations.
Industrial output rose 11.7 per cent in November from a year earlier, higher than the median forecast of an annual rise of 10 per cent in a Reuters poll and an unrevised 10.3 per cent rise in October, data showed on Tuesday.
The growth was the fastest since October 2007, when the industry grew an annual 12.2 per cent.
Factory output in November, which had expanded just 2.5 per cent in the same month last year, is riding a revival in consumer demand following aggressive rate cuts by the RBI and stimulus through tax breaks after the global downturn.
“This number combined with an expected 7.3 per cent WPI inflation for December, would strengthen the case for monetary tightening by the RBI,” said Gaurav Kapur, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank.
“The RBI may wait until the 3Q GDP release due end of February for hiking policy rates, but is likely to start withdrawing liquidity through a 50-basis points CRR (cash reserve ratio) hike in the January 29th policy review.”
Back pay of about Rs 18,000 crore ($3.96 billion) to federal government workers in October, the second instalment of a wage pact agreed in 2008, has also helped shore up consumers’ purchasing power.
A private survey found last week the December purchasing managers’ index showed the pace of manufacturing activity jumped to its highest since May on sharp rises in new work and output, while car sales in December rose an annual 40.3 per cent.
Industrial output, which grew for the 11th consecutive month exceeded South Korea’s but lagged the figure for neighbouring China. Output in China grew 19.2 per cent in November, while it rose 1.4 per cent in South Korea.
The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to 7.81 per cent from 7.78 per cent before the data, while the rupee pared some of its loss to be at 45.38/39 per dollar from 45.41/42 before the data.